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Problem Note 65960: The FORECAST procedure might issue a Segmentation Violation or Read Access Violation error when fitting a seasonal exponential smoothing model

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If the METHOD=WINTERS or METHOD=ADDWINTERS option is specified, and the SEASONS= option is incorrectly specified based on the INTERVAL= frequency, the FORECAST procedure issues an error message such as the following:

ERROR:  Read Access Violation FORECAST
ERROR:  An exception has been encountered.
Please contact technical support and provide them with the following traceback information:
The SAS task name is [FORECAST]
Segmentation Violation

When running in SAS Studio, the procedure might instead result in the error below:

SAS Studio error

The issue occurs under either of the following conditions when the METHOD=WINTERS or METHOD=ADDWINTERS option is specified:

  • The input data frequency is annual or lower and the SEASONS= option is specified. For example, INTERVAL=YEAR and SEASONS=MONTH.
  • The interval specified in the SEASONS= option has a higher frequency than the interval specified in the INTERVAL= option. For example, INTERVAL=QTR and SEASONS=MONTH.

In the first specification above, month-of-year seasonality is requested for annual data, which cannot be computed because there is no information about the month-to-month variation in the annual data. In the second specification above, month-of-year seasonality is requested when the input data is quarterly. It also cannot be computed for the same reason.

To circumvent the problem, only specify a seasonal model if the input data has a frequency that supports a seasonal model. If the data has a frequency that is higher than annual and therefore supports a seasonal model, then specify a frequency in the SEASONS= option that is the same or lower than the frequency of the input data.

The FORECAST procedure is obsolete. Please consider using the ESM procedure to fit exponential smoothing models.



Operating System and Release Information

Product FamilyProductSystemProduct ReleaseSAS Release
ReportedFixed*ReportedFixed*
SAS SystemSAS/ETSz/OS14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
z/OS 64-bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft® Windows® for x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8 Enterprise 32-bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8 Enterprise x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8 Pro 32-bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8 Pro x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8.1 Enterprise 32-bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8.1 Enterprise x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8.1 Pro 32-bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 8.1 Pro x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows 1014.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows Server 200814.39.4 TS1M5
Microsoft Windows Server 2008 R214.39.4 TS1M5
Microsoft Windows Server 2008 for x6414.39.4 TS1M5
Microsoft Windows Server 2012 Datacenter14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows Server 2012 R2 Datacenter14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows Server 2012 R2 Std14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows Server 2012 Std14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Microsoft Windows Server 201614.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Enterprise 32 bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Enterprise x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Home Premium 32 bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Home Premium x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Professional 32 bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Professional x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Ultimate 32 bit14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Windows 7 Ultimate x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
64-bit Enabled AIX14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
64-bit Enabled Solaris14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
HP-UX IPF14.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Linux for x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
Solaris for x6414.315.29.4 TS1M59.4 TS1M7
* For software releases that are not yet generally available, the Fixed Release is the software release in which the problem is planned to be fixed.